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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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